If memory serves me right, that title is an oxymoron.
Anyway, even though it isn't pretty, the math person that is buried deep inside of me has gotten to a point that I must look at the realistic and mathematical possibilities of what kind of time frame we are facing (anyone reading this, realize that this is MY calculation -- take it or leave it, but I think it's realistic - not optimistic, not pessimistic, just realistic). For what it's worth...
I looked at the number of days that have to be processed by the CCAA to get to our dossier's log in date. Our date is Jan 27, 2006 and they have processed paperwork through Aug 9, 2005. That is a simple one -- there are 170 days of dossiers ahead of us - yuck. So, with that, here goes...
I looked back to the number of days the CCAA progressed each month (9) since our dossier was logged-in. I thought about doing 2 "averages" - one of all the numbers in the last 9 months, and the other dropping the high and low months and averaging from there. However, the numbers were so close (11.85 and 11.77 days of dossiers processed per month) that I'll go with an approximate average of these two and call it 11.8 days.
Since we have 170 days to go, divide that by 11.8 and that gives us 14.4 months to go.... :( (with a tear in my eye).
I'll say it again ... that is an estimated 14.4 MORE months YET TO WAIT for our referral. Pretty BLEAK outlook, worse than I initially thought. That would mean a referral NEXT DECEMBER (I'm talking end of 2007). Maybe I should not have done the math. That would mean travel in Feb of 2008. (Which translates into a 2 year wait!!) The even worse news is that this is a realistic outlook based on the numbers they have put up -- it could slow down even more. Yes, I know, I know, but it can speed up. Yes, that is a possibility.
The WORST case scenario (based on one month in the last 9 months that they only processed 5 days of dossiers) is waiting 34 more months (that is 3 more years). I KNOW that cannot happen, so moving on...
To the BEST case scenario (based on 2 months in the last 9 months that they processed 18 days of dossiers) is waiting 9.4 more months. This MIGHT happen, but it's not likely. That would mean referral (remember, best case) in Sept next year and travel in early Nov? THat still stinks - seriously, if that is the best case, I wish I had never started analyzing this!
Bejing is hosting the 2008 Olympics, so maybe we should try to get tickets! Now there's something to look forward to -- JK....
Anyway, on to more YUCK. We both had our physicals today (girls had theirs last week) and also got our flu shots. The physicals were uneventful; however, I am apparently one of the few that "might possibly" develop flu-like symptoms after receiving the vaccine. I have a low grade fever, and I hurt all over - achy. Cold, hot, cold, hot. I'm thinking I'll be OK once I sleep - don't want to miss work tomorrow - that is a pain to reschedule! Everyone has deadlines.
I sound really depressed; however, I'm not. I have to look at this realistically to get a grasp of the possibilities. Next week will change our numbers as the referrals arrive for the month (usually between the 25th and 30th). We'll see how many more days into Aug 2005 that the CCAA progresses.
My best friend from high school is waiting to see if she and her hubby will make the cut this time. They are logged in on Aug 30, 2005. So maybe, maybe not. One "rumor" says they won't make it to the 30th, but everyone hopes they will (for the rest of the Aug people and for their own sakes!). I can't imagine how it must feel to be so close. One day, I'll know. I hope to be so very thankful at that point! Maybe I won't be too old to do the math then!